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Saturday, February 27, 2016 - 6:00pm to 8:00pm
Top Hat Winery

Come out and listen to some awesome music by the Late Fee's and enjoy some of our handcrafted wines.

Help us put the Fun back into the Historic Independence Square!

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Sunday, February 28, 2016 - 10:00am to 4:00pm
Parkade Center

Come explore the sites, sounds, and sensations that Mid-Missouri has to offer. Visit vendors who will help make your next staycation the best vacation you’ve ever experienced. Missouri Wines and several Missouri wineries will be there!

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True/False Film Festival
Thursday, March 3, 2016 - 4:00pm to Sunday, March 6, 2016 - 11:30pm

True/False Film Fest is known for screening eye-opening documentary films, fostering a sense of community all its own, and being an unforgettable experience. Missouri Wines is thrilled to be the official wine sponsor again this year. What could make an awesome festival like this better? Local, award-winning wine! Throughout the festival, which is being held March 3rd through the 6th in Columbia, there are unique events and celebrations where festival goers can enjoy a winning line up of delicious Missouri wines. Find Missouri wines at these events throughout the fest, and sip on some local flavor:

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Thursday, March 3, 2016 - 6:30pm to 8:00pm
Tipple Hill Winery Vineyard

All supplies included with step by step instructions and a glass of wine.

You are welcome to bring your own snacks – no outside beverages.

Must prepay register

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Thursday, March 3, 2016 - 7:00pm to 9:00pm
Tipple Hill Winery Vineyard

Trio playing your favorite hits from past to present.

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Friday, March 4, 2016 - 6:30pm to 9:00pm
Tipple Hill Winery Vineyard

Tournament Card game for Adults. This game is designed to create laughter fun. Warning- Not for the easily offended or meek of heart. If you enjoy playing CARDS AGAINST HUMANITY, you will love this game! Come give it a try with your friends! $5.00 per person includes a glass of wine and a chance to win prizes.

What Does Statistically Significant Mean?

by Jeff Sauro | October 21, 2014

Statistically significant.

It’s a phrase that’s packed with both meaning, and syllables. It’s hard to say and harder to understand.

Yet it’s one of the most common phrases heard when dealing with quantitative methods.

While the phrase statistically significant represents the result of a rational exercise with numbers, it has a way of evoking as much emotion. Bewilderment, resentment, confusion and even arrogance (for those in the know).

I’ve unpacked the most important concepts to help you the next time you hear the phrase.

Not Due to Chance

In principle, a statistically significant result (usually a difference) is a result that’s not attributed to chance.

More technically, it means that if the Null Hypothesis is true (which means there really is no difference), there’s a low probability of getting a result that large or larger.

Statisticians get really picky about the definition of statistical significance, and use confusing jargon to build a complicated definition. While it’s important to be clear on what statistical significance means technically, it’s just as important to be clear on what it means practically.

Consider these two important factors.

What it Means in Practice

Let’s look at a common scenario of A/B testing with, say, 435 users. During a week, they are randomly served either website landing page A or website landing page B.

Do we have evidence that future users will click on landing page A more often than on landing page B? Can we reliably attribute the 5-percentage-point difference in click-through rates to the effectiveness of one landing page over the other, or is this random noise?

How Do We Get Statistical Significance?

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to detect statistical difference depends on our metric type and on whether we’re comparing the same users (within subjects) or different users (between subjects) on the designs. To compare two conversion rates in an A/B test, as we’re doing here, we use a test of two proportions on different users (between subjects). These can be computed using the CafePress F18 Hornet Fighter Jet Pattern Milita Flip Flops Funny Thong Sandals Beach Sandals sjYNYUkx
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.

Below is a screenshot of the results using the A/B test calculator

To determine whether the observed difference is statistically significant, we look at two outputs of our statistical test:

What it Doesn’t Mean

Statistical significance does not mean practical significance.

The word “significance” in everyday usage connotes consequence and noteworthiness.

Just because you get a low p-value and conclude a difference is statistically significant, doesn’t mean the difference will automatically be important. It’s an unfortunate consequence of the words Sir Ronald Fisher used when describing the method of statistical testing.

To declare practical significance, we need to determine whether the size of the difference is meaningful. In our conversion example, one landing page is generating more than twice as many conversions as the other. This is a relatively large difference for A/B testing, so in most cases, this statistical difference has practical significance as well. The lower boundary of the confidence interval around the difference also leads us to expect at LEAST a 1% improvement. Whether that’s enough to have a practical (or a meaningful) impact on sales or website experience depends on the context.

Sample Size

As we might expect, the likelihood of obtaining statistically significant results increases as our sample size increases. For example, in analyzing the conversion rates of a high-traffic ecommerce website, two-thirds of users saw the current ad that was being tested and the other third saw the new ad.

The difference in conversion rates is statistically significant (p = 0.039) but, at 0.0006%, tiny, and likely of no practical significance. However, since the new ad now exists, and since a modest increase is better than none, we might as well use it (oh and just in case you thought a lot of people clicked on ads, let this remind you of how they don’t!)

Conversely, small sample sizes (say fewer than 50 users) make it harder to find statistical significance; but when we do find statistical significance with small sample sizes, the differences are large and more likely to drive action.

Some standardized methods express differences, called effect sizes , which help us interpret the size of the difference. Here, too, the context determines whether the difference warrants action.

Conclusion and Summary

Here’s a recap of statistical significance:

Now say statistically significant three times fast.

: The blue bar shows 5% difference. The black line shows the boundaries of the 95% confidence interval around the difference. Because the lower boundary is above 0%, we can also be 95% confident the difference is AT LEAST 0–another indication of statistical significance.

Many librarians say that while they have rapidly shifted money and resources to digital materials, print still has a place. Academic libraries tend to keep many sets of specialized encyclopedias on their shelves, like volumes on Judaica, folklore, music or philosophy, or encyclopedias that are written in foreign languages and unavailable online.

At the Portland Public Library in Maine, there are still many encyclopedias that the library orders on a regular basis, sometimes every year, said Sonya Durney, a reference librarian. General-interest encyclopedias are often used by students whose teachers require them to occasionally cite print sources, just to practice using print.

“They’re used by anyone who’s learning, anyone who’s new to the country, older patrons, people who aren’t comfortable online,” Ms. Durney said. “There’s a whole demographic of people who are more comfortable with print.”

But many people are discovering that the books have outlived their usefulness. Used editions of encyclopedias are widely available on Craigslist and eBay: more than 1,400 listings for Britannica products were posted on eBay this week.

Charles Fuller, a geography professor who lives in the Chicago suburbs, put his 1992 edition on sale on Craigslist last Sunday. For years, he has neglected the print encyclopedias, he said in an interview, and now prefers to use his iPhone to look up facts quickly. He and his wife are downsizing and relocating to California, he said, and the Encyclopaedia Britannica will not be coming with them, a loss he acknowledges with a hint of wistfulness.

“They’re not obsolete,” Mr. Fuller said. “When I’m doing serious research, I still use the print books. And they look really beautiful on the bookshelves.”

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